Opinion (Rogério COPETO / Official GNR): THE CRIMINAL STATISTICS.
"Statistic is the science that uses probabilistic theories to explain the frequency of occurrence of events", there also say that "Statistic is the science of torturing the numbers, until confess what we want ". Eventually the two statistical definitions are used daily, but only the first is correct.
Rogério COPETO
Lieutenant Colonel of the GNR, Master in Law and Security and Homeland Security Auditor
Head of the Education Division / Command of the Doctrine and Training
isto place, let's talk about crime statistics and Homeland Security Annual Report 2015 (Rasi / 2015), that despite having not been published, we know some of its conclusions, through the various articles published last week, have the same implication to increase or decrease the feeling of safety of people, according to the different readings, What can be done from information already known and conveyed by the Media (OCS).
Most articles realized increased crime "investee", TSF chosen having the title "Crime subsidiary increased 13% in 2015", RR in the news had the title "General participated crime rises for the first time in seven years"And in the Business Journal titled"Crime increased 2015 and corruption has given rise to 647 surveys".
In addition to the references to the increase in crime "owned", domestic violence was also highlighted, having been in the news a reduction of this type of crime 2015, no PTJornal, who spread this information in the news with the title "Domestic violence fell 2015, but still there 26700 victims". JN gave the account of detention 277 people for sexual crimes, in the news with the title "277 people detained in 2015 for sex crimes". The BeiraNews citing LUSA, He made known, that crimes committed in schools increased, through article "Security: Occurrences school environment increased 6,2%". The Observer informed that the fire increased crimes and robberies decreased, through the article with the title "Crime diagnosis in Portugal. doubled Arson, robberies decreased". And the CM without giving emphasis to any increase or decrease, invites us to know the RASI / 2015, through the article entitled "Meet in detail the Homeland Security Annual Report".
As mentioned, the RASI / 2015 has not yet been published, for this reason, it is not possible to know its contents, It is however possible to get a general perception of it, by reading the aforesaid, where the main conclusion was that in 2015 They were more committed crimes, in which 2014, knowing that some types of crimes increased, others decreased and still others, They were made for the first time in 2015, since the respective conduits were not criminalized in 2014, these findings may carry it to a decreased sense of security, by the population, with the aggravating circumstance that the increase in crime "owned"Not happened since 2008.
The increase in crime "owned"Recorded last year, It is expressed in more 4.721 crimes, compared to 2014, year that were recorded 351.311 crimes, having 2015 was recorded 356.032 crimes, thus corresponding to an increase of 1,3% crime.
As already the reader may have noticed, I put the word "owned" in quotes, for not agreeing with the same, when referring to crimes that are participated to the police. This disagreement has to do with the fact that the crimes reported to prosecutors (MP) the Criminal Police Bodies (OPC) They come to their knowledge through two different ways: the complaint of citizens, calls or complaints; the participation of the OPC own, as a result of its operational activity. So, always divide the crimes "Reported crimes", those resulting from citizen complaints and "participated crimes", as those that are the result of operating activity of the OPC.
For clarity, thus dividing the crimes, Start by realizing that one of the responsibilities of a commander of any rank GNR, It is to have a very detailed knowledge of the crime statistics of their area of responsibility, having so, during the 10 years I played Commander of the Territorial Detachment had the opportunity to prepare various reports, with the aim of informing the upper echelon of recorded crime in the action zone of my responsibility.
To prepare these reports, recorded crimes, They were divided into five major areas: crimes against property; crimes against people; crimes against the state; crimes against life in society and; crimes under separate legislation.
In crimes against property are inclusive of all thefts and robberies, The damage, as burlas, etc, which are set out in "Title II – Crimes against property” do Penal Code.
Crimes against persons are those who belong to the "Title I – Crimes against persons", which are typified the crimes of murder, offense against physical integrity, threat, domestic violence, sexual abuse, etc, still having last year been introduced three new types of crime: female genital mutilation; persecution and; forced marriage.
Crimes against the state, They include the conduct committed against the state itself or its employees, such as the police officers, such as the strength of crime and coercion on employee, disobedience, and are set forth in "titles in – Crimes against the state".
Crimes against life in society are laid down in "Title IV – Crimes against life in society", which includes for example the driving crime in a state of drunkenness and fire crime.
And the crimes provided for in separate legislation, as its name implies, They are included all those who are not provided for in the Penal Code, such as all crimes provided for in the "Weapons Law", as "illegal possession of weapons", provided in the "Law on Drugs" as the "drug trafficking", the "illegal gambling" and "illegal logging", both provided us respective diplomas, as well as others that are typed in as many laws and Executive Orders.
Also the five areas mentioned above, They can be divided into "Reported crimes” e “participated crimes", mainly because the crimes against people and against property, recorded by the OPC, They are the result of complaints made by citizens and those that result from operating activities, They are mainly those that include the state crime, against society and those provided for in separate legislation.
So, this division, in "Reported crimes” e “participated crimes", results in an easier analysis of the crimes, knowing that those who cause insecurity in populations, are undoubtedly, and first, crimes against property, followed by crimes against people, these being, who are mostly reported by citizens. And the crimes committed against the state, against society and those provided for in separate legislation, They are those which cause the least uncertainty populations, these mainly being communicated by OPC.
Concluding so, that prevention work should be focused on reducing crimes against property and against individuals, should the crime statistics, First of all, refer to crimes against property and against individuals, increased or decreased, compared to the same period under consideration, not analyzed, the total number of recorded crimes increased or decreased, because it results in a reductive analysis.
Without wanting to use the second definition of the statistical, referred to at the beginning of this article, and reading the various news published by OCS on the RASI / 2015, it seems to me that despite an increase in recorded crimes in 2015, the reported crime have decreased, because in crimes against property, decreased robberies in commercial or industrial buildings 14,3%, as well as theft in residence at least 16,2%, theft of motor vehicles decreased by 9,1% and precious metals theft had a significant decrease in 21,9%. And in crimes against people, decreased domestic violence, without also forgetting 1.330 crimes of mistreatment of animals, whose conduct was criminalized in October 2014, and contributed to the increase in crime 2015, not thereby increasing the sense of insecurity of the people.
Instead, It concludes that there had been an increase in activity resulting crime operating OPC, be authentic in the number of arrests and inquiries opened for investigation of crimes, They are contributing to the increase in total number of recorded crime, standing out in this area too the driving offenses while intoxicated, which had an increase of 10,2%, so contributing to an increased sense of security of the people and trust in police, strengthened further by the fact that serious and organized crime have decreased.
So, and not "torturing" the figures already known to the RASI / 2015 and unlike the news that led to the increase of the registered crime 2015, compared with registered in 2014, that does not cease to be true, it seems to me that the Portuguese should be satisfied with the police work, because the increase in crime it was the result of operational effectiveness, attending the MP all criminal conduct that had knowledge, the majority that resulted, the work done under its criminal activity and thousands of operations performed, in various valences.
I conclude by noting that in 2015 the decrease in "Reported crimes"And increasing"participated crimes"Had the effect of increasing the sense of security and confidence in police, even if the total number of registered crimes has increased.
